TSMC's predicted revenue for upcoming years is suspected to decline amid concerns about wafer output and the company's plans to "delay" its manufacturing processes.
TSMC Is Focusing on Diversifying Existing Chip Plants Through Taiwanese Equipment, Leading to a Temporary Drop in Wafer Output
The news comes from the financial firm Goldman Sachs Securities, which has forecasted a 10% drop in TSMC's expected revenue in 2024. The driving reason behind the analysis is the drop in TSMC's share pricing on 15th September, after news emerged (via Reuters) that TSMC had reportedly told its major advanced chip equipment supplier ASML to delay deliveries due to "unknown" reasons.
Neither the Taiwanese giant nor the Dutch manufacturer has disclosed a reason behind the move; however, it is claimed that TSMC plans to bring "diversity" within its global manufacturing plants.
Goldman Sachs predicts a steady revenue in 2023, maintaining $31.6 Billion US without any fluctuations. However, the firm does forecast a drop in 2024, declining by 23% from $28 billion to $25 billion. A lower wafer output also follows the revenue decline, as Goldman Sachs states that the 3nm wafer capacity utilization rate is expected to witness a significant drop as well. For FY24-25, wafer output is set to reach 70,000 to 80,000 monthly.
However, despite the decline in various segments, Goldman Sachs is still optimistic about its position in the industry since it has established a monopoly, especially in the HPC and AI segments. Currently, TSMC is in the race towards being the largest supplier of chips in the industry, and the Taiwanese giant is focused on catering to the needs of its valuable clients like NVIDIA. At the same time, the drop predicted by Goldman Sachs doesn't specify a driving reason; it may be that TSMC plans to diversify its supply chain by utilizing in-house manufacturing equipment.
TSMC is currently in a well-established position regardless of the economic indicators, and we believe it is set to witness exponential YoY growth, given that the order volume it currently experiences maintains at a steady level.
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