Apple has been reported on multiple occasions to officially unveil the M3 later this year, and it will be the company’s second 3nm chipset after the A17 Pro. Unfortunately, the company’s demand for its next-generation SoCs will be below expectations as shipments of its MacBook and iPad lineup continue to fall, with an analyst reporting that the Work-From-Home (WFH) trend has run its course.
Appeal for new specifications such as mini-LED and advanced Apple Silicon are also dwindling, causing a shipments decline
In his Medium blog post, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo states that ASML, a Dutch-based firm that specializes in the development and manufacturing of photolithography machines, is said to cut EUV equipment shipment forecasts significantly next year by up to 30 percent. Kuo outlines one of the reasons for this negative impact below, stating that Apple’s demand for its upcoming 3nm M3 will be below previous estimations.
“Apple’s 3nm demand for 2024 would be below expectations. In 2023, Apple’s MacBook and iPad shipments declined significantly by approximately 30% and 22% to 17 million and 48 million units, respectively. The sharp decline is attributed to the end of work-from-home (WFH) demand and diminishing user appeal for the new specifications (Apple Silicon and Mini-LED). Looking ahead to 2024, Apple’s 3nm demand is negatively impacted by the lack of growth drivers for MacBook and iPad.”
It appears that the advantages that mini-LED and Apple Silicon have over competitors are still present, but consumers do not appear to be appealed by them anymore. It is likely that after the M1’s inception, Apple could not provide a massive performance and power-efficiency differentiation when it introduced the M2. Though industry watchers were expecting some incredible results from the A17 Pro because it is mass produced on TSMC’s so-called cutting-edge architecture, the custom silicon disappointed in various real-world tests.
Given that the M3 will also be mass produced on the same N3B process as the A17 Pro, potential customers of future MacBook and iPad models may not feel the same confidence when upgrading to any one of these models as they will be under the impression that the M3 will deliver the same discouraging efficiency numbers as the A17 Pro. Kuo also notes in his blog that Qualcomm’s demand for 3nm chips is below expectations as Huawei will now switch to its own Kirin SoCs, resulting in a loss of 60 million chip orders for the San Diego entity.
Exynos 2400 is also expected to make a lasting statement when it arrives for the Galaxy S24 series, forcing Qualcomm to reduce demand for next year. Both Apple and Qualcomm continue to sustain successive losses, so it will be interesting to see their financials in 2024.
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