The Apple Vision Pro is expected to be released in early 2024, and with its hefty $3,499 price tag, it was clear that the mixed-reality headset was never going to sell in droves. The obvious pain point to make this segment more successful is to bring down the cost, and with Apple reportedly working on a more affordable model for 2025, it appears that the company is ambitious in its goals. However, one analyst believes otherwise and provides his predictions for the Apple Vision Pro 2 and the low-cost version.
For the first-generation Apple Vision Pro, expected shipments may only top out at 600,000 units in 2024
TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo provides details on not just the Apple Vision Pro shipment estimates but also the expected launch timeline of the Apple Vision Pro 2. At most, Kuo believes that in 2024, the head-mounted wearable will only see up to 600,000 units shipped, which is well below the previous estimation of one million.
Given that the device will only be available through an appointment system and launch in the U.S. first, a global presence will not be established quickly enough for the device to gain traction. The only hope lies in an affordable version of the Apple Vision Pro, but Kuo believes that the technology giant may have canceled it from its product launch list for 2025 unless it can reduce the price of its AR headsets.
“Apple may have canceled the low-cost Vision Pro version plan (with market consensus expecting a 2025 launch). Unless Apple significantly reduces the price of Vision Pro, the anticipated significant shipment growth in Vision Pro shipments starting in 2025 may not materialize.”
Also, it may take several years before consumers get to see the Apple Vision Pro 2 in action. Kuo predicts that the successor may enter mass production in 2027, highlighting that the first-generation model will not see hardware upgrades between this time. Regardless of what the market consensus is regarding the Apple Vision Pro, Kuo still thinks that the device will provide one of the best user experiences for this category, and if the ludicrously high price can be addressed, he might alter his predictions.
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